MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c31280f9ffdb2d125409fe2a7cfd111900d668584186026c8bb2ea90af91f60

Rebuilt 52 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
Resolved: May 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $64,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,858

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,778 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a26…937ebacked Philadelphia Phillies	44c	16,998$7,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,497.84	613	51.5%316 W · 297 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres	58c	13,493$7,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,848.44	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99aa…6c5abacked Philadelphia Phillies	43c	10,454$4,495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,958.72	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres	35c	6,248$2,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,181.71	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Philadelphia Phillies	61c	4,000$2,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,560	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	4,000$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,200	448	51.6%231 W · 217 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Philadelphia Phillies	64c	3,999$2,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,439.72	603	50.1%302 W · 301 L	-10.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies	37c	3,241$1,203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,037.9	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres	63c	3,004$1,896 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,896.44	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed San Diego Padres	56c	3,000$1,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,680	779	51.1%398 W · 381 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies	36c	2,829$1,022 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,807.08	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres	55c	2,401$1,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,324.89	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres	41c	2,400$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$982.63	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed San Diego Padres	57c	2,099$1,191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,190.79	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres	56c	2,039$1,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,151.78	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed San Diego Padres	56c	2,000$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed San Diego Padres	57c	1,956$1,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.92	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Philadelphia Phillies	43c	1,427$614 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$813.59	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed San Diego Padres	56c	1,250$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.99	1,063	48.2%512 W · 551 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres	65c	1,205$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783.2	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres	56c	1,000$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.68	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked San Diego Padres	55c	955$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.25	1,521	48.6%739 W · 782 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres	56c	913.28$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres	56c	759.23$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.17	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked San Diego Padres	36c	725.28$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.1	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked San Diego Padres	41c	716.51$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.77	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres	57c	640.29$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.97	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed San Diego Padres	36c	600$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies	40c	595.75$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.49	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e6…7bf4backed San Diego Padres	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Philadelphia Phillies	63c	500$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185	96	57.3%55 W · 41 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed San Diego Padres	56c	413.16$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.1	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres	56c	401$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.56	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies	34c	396.85$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.18	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	370$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.2	175	45.7%80 W · 95 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Philadelphia Phillies	66c	322.1$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.51	129	40.3%52 W · 77 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres	16c	216$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.77	1,879	40.6%763 W · 1,116 L	-39.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.32	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0706…f25dbacked San Diego Padres	69c	200$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	66	69.7%46 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	70cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed San Diego Padres	36c	188.89$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	193	53.9%104 W · 89 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed San Diego Padres	57c	180$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.6	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed San Diego Padres	55c	150.82$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.95	403	41.4%167 W · 236 L	-20.0wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	150$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.43	689	42.2%291 W · 398 L	+18.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed San Diego Padres	58c	130.4$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.63	328	57.9%190 W · 138 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed San Diego Padres	36c	125$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	138	58.7%81 W · 57 L	+8.1wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc5a…07b6backed Philadelphia Phillies	31c	106.32$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.41	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed San Diego Padres	36c	105.56$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	1,522	34.7%528 W · 994 L	+27.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed San Diego Padres	38c	105$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	447	37.4%167 W · 280 L	-24.1wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	846	51.5%436 W · 410 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Philadelphia Phillies	63c	85$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.25	475	89.1%423 W · 52 L	+84.9wins	+0.18per pick	71cpaid	+25%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres	41c	79.25$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.79	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44be…76b1backed Philadelphia Phillies	64c	78.79$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.39	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33fc…dc88backed San Diego Padres	44c	76.62$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.07	224	57.1%128 W · 96 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	76.48$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.83	664	48.2%320 W · 344 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Diego Padres	39c	73.78$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.02	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked Philadelphia Phillies	45c	66.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.67	242	48.8%118 W · 124 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed San Diego Padres	58c	66$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fcd…b8dbbacked San Diego Padres	43c	56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.04	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Philadelphia Phillies	43c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	507	48.7%247 W · 260 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	47.16$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.98	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26a8…8a98backed San Diego Padres	36c	40.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed San Diego Padres	57c	38.72$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.07	300	48%144 W · 156 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476b…0afabacked Philadelphia Phillies	45c	37.78$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.78	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Philadelphia Phillies	54c	37.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	1,777	58.4%1,037 W · 740 L	+91.8wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies	47c	36.49$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.37	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies	43c	36$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.52	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	34.09$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.09	544	55.1%300 W · 244 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked San Diego Padres	58c	33.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	1,014	47.7%484 W · 530 L	-28.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed San Diego Padres	34c	31.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	694	47.6%330 W · 364 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Philadelphia Phillies	41c	30.76$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.15	375	51.2%192 W · 183 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked Philadelphia Phillies	65c	30.39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.59	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed San Diego Padres	58c	30.22$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.53	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Philadelphia Phillies	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	225	54.7%123 W · 102 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	348	43.4%151 W · 197 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Philadelphia Phillies	73c	25.45$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	532	61.8%329 W · 203 L	+20.6wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Philadelphia Phillies	43c	24.15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.76	890	53.1%473 W · 417 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6e…d6debacked Philadelphia Phillies	49c	22.78$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.59	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Philadelphia Phillies	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	353	41.1%145 W · 208 L	-16.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 2.5Over won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Under won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event