MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb342e7992ae6a40d5d1ddf300e88de3625087a4d6148466846a24f90c1d2649a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 1,795$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.51 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 1,731$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.18 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 459.37$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 399.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 255$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 205$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 165.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 136.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 134.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…1a39backed San Diego Padres | 28c | 97.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 85.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 77c | 46.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 37.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.