Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576bc81e2ec0db871e4710b80bc80c997fb70b1d84041a24234439ae2cce5c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 307.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 40c | 250.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 206.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 172.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 168.58$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 37c | 137.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 129.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 127.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 31c | 97.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 38c | 66.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 65.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 61.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 59.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 56.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 71c | 52.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 43.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 55c | 43.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 40.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 34.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 33.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…f092backed No | 66c | 32.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…9542backed Yes | 33c | 32.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 30.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 42c | 30.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 48c | 30.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…9f83backed No | 67c | 28.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…5115backed No | 69c | 27.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 26.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 25.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…4cd5backed No | 68c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 44c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 16.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.