Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf8390845d41ea91e97def9d95dceeb4b0ce1847ffb50ef138e394e1794ebadd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb00…780cbacked No | 0c | 6,045$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 2,741$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 45c | 2,002$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.74 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 1,056$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 670.11$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 638.4$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 343.84$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 320.33$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 62c | 280.25$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 277.12$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 52c | 214$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 169.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 168.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 24c | 164.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed No | 63c | 131.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 124$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 40c | 123.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 120.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 105.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 54c | 102.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 87.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 60c | 80.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 76.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 43c | 73.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 71.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed No | 54c | 66.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 66.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 66.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 61.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…b082backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 60c | 59.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 57.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 42c | 53.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 51.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 60c | 51.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 50.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 49.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…5393backed Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 43c | 45.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 45c | 44.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 43.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 43.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 42.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc038…1becbacked No | 60c | 42.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 40.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 32.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 41c | 27.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 51c | 23.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…cc6cbacked No | 48c | 22.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.