Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f7d6587b6d652a08992937632442701958a41779e32b3c03810af51d105aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 5,872$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 14c | 5,394$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 13c | 3,406$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.39 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 13c | 1,249$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 15c | 1,049$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 17c | 994.71$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Over | 15c | 619.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 7c | 532.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 15c | 330.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 32%39 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 310.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 15c | 296.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Over | 14c | 230.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 9c | 120.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Over | 14c | 108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Pisa SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.