Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x580989bbfc5e97f77fcaca1ba715c095bb83b7a85ddf94321766f32d010c1540
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 14c | 612.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 63c | 515.12$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.79 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 63c | 474.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.17 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 14c | 414.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 54c | 402.61$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.31 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 52c | 365.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.97 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 43c | 349.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.81 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 342.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 325.67$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 303.5$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 7c | 248.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 39c | 231.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 58c | 214.33$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 54c | 204.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 198.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 193.26$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 180.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 56c | 179.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 59c | 177$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…2719backed Yes | 62c | 163.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed No | 11c | 161.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 58c | 151.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 24c | 143.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 142.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 137.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 132.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 130.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 130.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 60c | 122.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 47c | 117.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 117$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 105.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 104.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 68c | 100.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 39c | 98.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 41c | 86.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 81.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 64c | 77.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 60c | 74.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 74.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 70.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 47c | 70.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…a1d6backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 15c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 63c | 66.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 63.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 50c | 60.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 58c | 55.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 52c | 53.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 42c | 51.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 47.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 49c | 45.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 47c | 42.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 38c | 42.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 42.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 40.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 39.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 51c | 38.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 49c | 36.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 76c | 36.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked No | 55c | 36.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 64c | 34.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 59c | 33.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 79c | 31.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 64c | 30.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…8246backed Yes | 40c | 30.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…b17abacked No | 64c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…9319backed No | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 69c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 55c | 21.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 21.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…d998backed No | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.