Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f1f110189b229d33759918f302a5d7169c72c85711cc63f6dd58637fb54705a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,857$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 890.07$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.19 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 701.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 339.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 327.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 316.49$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 7c | 314.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 258.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 26c | 231.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 217.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 32c | 215.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 206$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 45c | 194.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 187.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 184.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 46c | 184.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 59c | 181.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 37c | 176.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 35c | 169.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 151.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 147$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 138.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 138$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 40c | 131.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 131.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 62c | 130.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 23c | 127.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 28c | 121.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 120.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 116.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 16c | 112.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 109.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 100.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 95.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 93.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 38c | 86.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 64c | 85.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8850…d68dbacked No | 59c | 80.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 64c | 79.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 65c | 76.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 39c | 76.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 52c | 76.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 45c | 75.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 16c | 72.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 38c | 69.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 40c | 69.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 36c | 67.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 65.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 47c | 64.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…1f29backed No | 72c | 63.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…de73backed No | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 34c | 54.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 56c | 53.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…9319backed No | 58c | 53.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c6…52a5backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 41c | 51.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 50.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 62c | 48.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 41c | 48.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 65c | 46.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 46.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 42.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 60c | 41.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 65c | 41.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…d757backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 59c | 39.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…5671backed Yes | 38c | 39.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 61c | 37.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f9…2f5cbacked Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…2f6cbacked Yes | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 60c | 35.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 36c | 35.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 60c | 34.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 60c | 33.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 59c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1593backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.