MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58210360447a0808735a6cc59ad0dc31b32955e0635b86ac655ab92caba684f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Over | 52c | 42,224$21,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,956.3 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,600 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 48c | 24,114$11,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,539.1 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,400 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 10,628$5,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,554.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 9,069$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,968.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 8,337$4,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,573.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 2,724$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.84 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 1,585$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.42 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 47c | 1,121$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.09 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 52c | 1,038$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.53 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 49c | 620$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.2 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 47c | 574.23$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.77 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 470.02$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Over | 52c | 460.13$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.53 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 436.09$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 38c | 403.21$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 371$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Under | 62c | 366.72$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 47c | 346.36$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 299.23$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 289.52$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 286.13$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 52c | 266.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 4c | 259.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 51c | 183$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 159.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…aa3dbacked Over | 65c | 158.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 41c | 142.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 133.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 104.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 26c | 96.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 47c | 76.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 47c | 68.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6593…445ebacked Under | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 42c | 63.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Over | 52c | 60.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 55.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 39c | 51.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 59c | 51.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 51c | 47.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 46c | 44.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Under | 48c | 43.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Over | 52c | 43.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…f251backed Over | 29c | 41.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 51c | 38.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…299fbacked Under | 45c | 36.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Over | 51c | 36.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 51c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…e41bbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 47c | 28.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…05b5backed Over | 51c | 27.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…5347backed Over | 52c | 27.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 38c | 26.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Over | 52c | 26.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 48c | 25.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Under | 53c | 24.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…371fbacked Over | 51c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 53c | 22.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 52c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…da6bbacked Under | 51c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.