MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5837ab8244b5879feeae0cb3ae0dd8845fd5cb5143a4592aa4e0d50fe6478384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Nationals, Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Phillies | 63c | 6,284$3,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,943.77 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Nationals | 35c | 5,821$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,781.13 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 38c | 5,162$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.42 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals | 37c | 4,820$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,035.64 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Phillies | 62c | 4,581$2,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.63 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Phillies | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Phillies | 46c | 1,908$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.28 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies | 62c | 1,624$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.12 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Nationals | 39c | 1,538$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.46 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nationals | 70c | 1,380$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.96 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Phillies | 62c | 1,313$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.22 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Phillies | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Phillies | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Nationals | 76c | 876.32$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.32 | 391 | 60.4%236 W · 155 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Nationals | 38c | 810.01$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.08 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 43c | 757.27$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79b…107abacked Phillies | 67c | 684.06$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals | 38c | 660$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.2 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Nationals | 35c | 566.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.35 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Nationals | 37c | 558.23$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.68 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Phillies | 61c | 527.98$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.07 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Nationals | 38c | 526$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.12 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Phillies | 7c | 512.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Phillies | 61c | 499.98$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Nationals | 76c | 475.76$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nationals | 70c | 410$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Phillies | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Nationals | 34c | 385.53$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.26 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Nationals | 39c | 385.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.07 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Phillies | 64c | 350.94$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Nationals | 63c | 286.69$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Nationals | 38c | 220$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Nationals | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Nationals | 41c | 168$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 172 | 39.5%68 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals | 38c | 163.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…b5cbbacked Phillies | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Nationals | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe0…6e30backed Phillies | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals | 38c | 138.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Nationals | 39c | 136.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Phillies | 24c | 135.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Nationals | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Nationals | 70c | 85.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Nationals | 39c | 72.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Nationals | 36c | 60.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Nationals | 38c | 56.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Nationals | 39c | 50.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…be98backed Nationals | 60c | 43.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Phillies | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Phillies | 63c | 37.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nationals | 38c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Phillies | 70c | 34.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Nationals | 38c | 31.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Phillies | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Phillies | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Nationals | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Nationals | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Phillies | 62c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Nationals | 75c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.