Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b3694d040e4daee5afcb3123e369664f4e472906f53586c3e70bbca8ef9042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 19c | 1,176$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.35 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 12c | 573.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 13c | 336.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 8c | 267.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 247.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 30c | 240.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…3646backed Yes | 5c | 209.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 195.81$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…f8c9backed Yes | 7c | 154.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 12c | 147.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…85bdbacked Yes | 9c | 136.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 11c | 128.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 118.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 69c | 107$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 13c | 101.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 99.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 95.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 86.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked Yes | 19c | 71.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 40c | 52.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 73c | 41.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e9…b860backed Yes | 28c | 38.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 28c | 38.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 40c | 25.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 73c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?this page
- Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?Yes won
- Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
- Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
- Will Mark Wheeler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.