Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4eed684bdfa42fef3fa9e11bf11666c1eea4cbfb11ab7951ec49891341619c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 23c | 2,347$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.06 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 47c | 1,778$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.12 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed No | 23c | 1,697$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 67c | 925$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.51 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 54c | 573.62$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.01 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed No | 32c | 556.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa465…6b06backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 44c | 462.66$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.66 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 453.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.15 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 440.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.39 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 76c | 435.6$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 15c | 424.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.1 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 29c | 406.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.08 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 341.76$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.51 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 321.79$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 35c | 266$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 63c | 260$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 29c | 244.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 53c | 212.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked No | 9c | 194.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +453.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 181$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 71c | 178.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 42c | 176$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 23c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 29c | 125.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 69c | 94.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 28c | 94.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 40c | 92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…6ad4backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 51c | 87.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 81.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked Yes | 77c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 69.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 61c | 68.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 31c | 68.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…2bb3backed No | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes | 52c | 52.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 48c | 52.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9b…2422backed No | 32c | 50.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f7…f817backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 52c | 48.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…db35backed Yes | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed No | 35c | 46.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 51c | 44.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 60c | 39.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…4660backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…8999backed No | 50c | 37.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…9c72backed Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1957…5c58backed No | 35c | 35.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 49c | 32.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 74c | 32.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 55c | 31.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…406bbacked Yes | 53c | 29.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 61c | 29.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 28.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…79f7backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…2289backed Yes | 54c | 24.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 45c | 24.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…cf14backed No | 52c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…fed2backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…1548backed Yes | 73c | 19.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Yes | 65c | 17.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf30…930fbacked Yes | 70c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?this page
- Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
- Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?Yes won
- Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
- Will Mark Wheeler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.