NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Jets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ca1623966b2731c31be47901039bfa623f7ab262f76b6eb94b5271cf039688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,625 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 55c | 3,289$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.91 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 47c | 2,222$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.34 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Over | 45c | 2,200$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 51c | 1,980$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.19 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 1,447$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.24 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,283$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.89 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 75c | 1,151$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.67 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.1 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 1,066$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 21c | 961$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.81 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 874.39$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.27 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 56c | 705.51$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.51 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Over | 45c | 655.56$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 622.62$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.92 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 49c | 601.38$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.38 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 506.74$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.27 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 501.74$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.55 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 438.41$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.44 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 45c | 226.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 218.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 46c | 145$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 50c | 138.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 50c | 118.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 54c | 111.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 54c | 99.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 49c | 96.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…f9d5backed Over | 45c | 91.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 53c | 66.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 46c | 43.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 48c | 41.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…492ebacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca34…eababacked Over | 48c | 37.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 54c | 34.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 32c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 48c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 52c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Jets: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. JetsDucks won
- Ducks vs. Jets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.