Champions League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United FC vs. PSV end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5990219ef37663d64e588cffec43e7eb91f42296b83c5d3e39a5c6629b11dd4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38fa…55eabacked Yes | 16c | 6,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…3eeabacked Yes | 17c | 5,650$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 15c | 5,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 17c | 4,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,223$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.37 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 3,206$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.13 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Yes | 16c | 3,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…ad34backed Yes | 18c | 2,757$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.24 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 17c | 2,327$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.52 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 17c | 2,222$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.74 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 17c | 1,718$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…fafcbacked Yes | 12c | 898.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 16c | 602.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 16c | 600.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…722cbacked Yes | 11c | 460.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…8fe0backed Yes | 18c | 408.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 17c | 325$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Yes | 4c | 310$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…39c8backed Yes | 17c | 301.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 16c | 294.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 16c | 275$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 17c | 211.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…be12backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Yes | 16c | 154$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 10c | 116.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed Yes | 17c | 111.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…724bbacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…a12bbacked Yes | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…33a9backed Yes | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 16c | 67.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United FC vs. PSV end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21?Yes won
- Will PSV win on 2026-01-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.