MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b23be380be0e00d8626868d5810d3e68ff027611a1becdaba0e20a9614cd8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 59c | 3,031$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 40c | 2,854$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.83 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed No | 61c | 2,445$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.96 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 41c | 1,462$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.52 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 60c | 669.53$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.81 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 490$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 436.82$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.73 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 40c | 332.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 6c | 325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 43c | 257$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 234.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 219.54$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 40c | 165.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 40c | 158$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 41c | 101.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed No | 60c | 61.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed No | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…f17fbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…492abacked No | 61c | 28.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 60c | 23.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…1a0dbacked No | 60c | 21.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Raysthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.