MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b9c09bed9a25370385edccf2104ddf2effd0d4d8bd8dbb4586bb96970b1802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f8e…4487backed Under | 58c | 71,533$41,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,043.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 42c | 59,523$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,999.66 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 20,440$7,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,812.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 11,090$7,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,791.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 3,394$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 2,137$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Under | 59c | 1,530$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 42c | 1,365$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.3 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 20c | 800.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 700$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Over | 41c | 599.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 172 | 39.5%68 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c81…8f47backed Under | 59c | 586.46$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 40c | 581.35$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 572$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 44c | 534.58$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.25 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 56c | 513.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.59 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 41c | 484.03$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.09 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 43c | 375$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 56c | 372.74$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.01 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 58c | 334.45$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.47 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 67c | 306.35$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 304.57$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 283$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 42c | 236.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 180.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 29c | 176.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 59c | 135.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 103.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 42c | 89.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 89.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 41c | 78.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 58c | 68.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 44c | 67.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 36c | 62.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 42c | 59.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 57c | 48.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…1d6bbacked Under | 51c | 31.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 49c | 31.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 67c | 28.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 57c | 26.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.