MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07767123597ae4eab95689afc1954aaadb4600ff28a623ae965258b0e9b87b15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 67c | 2,013$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.27 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 1,926$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.36 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 1,761$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 33c | 923.6$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 16c | 731$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 297.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 33c | 294.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 65c | 257$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 35c | 257$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 32c | 236.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 34c | 233.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…0de6backed Under | 66c | 152.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 115$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 36c | 102.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 65c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 36c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 65c | 76.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 34c | 69.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 19c | 60.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 35c | 50.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 33c | 31.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 61c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.