MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x354a0f42adf1d8ba14da72ccdf7c26fa78dd6c2bb3f69fe6af01e7de591d2416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 10,089$6,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,553.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 5,973$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 4,830$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.25 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 3,167$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.47 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 3,090$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 3,066$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 2,290$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,942$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 1,596$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.61 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 1,172$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.13 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 1,031$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 1,024$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.64 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 1,010$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.7 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 700$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.98 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 666$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 489.41$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 468.73$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.84 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 390.03$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 365.58$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 332.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 265$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 264.62$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 244$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Tampa Bay Rays | 10c | 226.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 224.35$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 211.48$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 199.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 166.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 141$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Tampa Bay Rays | 14c | 122$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 120.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 116.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 116.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 94.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 75.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 69.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 65.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…e4f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 54.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 51.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 48.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 46.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 46.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 36.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 35.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 34.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 22.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 17.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 17.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.