MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1fbcc0e6a923f314c7eea72c40d5a9566a086bea9d7d9ef105d61b90a5f7735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 17c | 124,258$21,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,371.81 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 74c | 46,086$33,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,206.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 27,888$9,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,524.25 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 28c | 17,857$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 55c | 14,969$8,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,233.16 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 9,021$4,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,644.29 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 6,385$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.96 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 44c | 2,868$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.96 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 2,063$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.58 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 2,021$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.25 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 1,812$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.43 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 35c | 1,581$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.4 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 55c | 1,400$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.99 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 1,185$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.5 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 22c | 1,177$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.27 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 1,089$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.13 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 45c | 1,013$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.04 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 852$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.36 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 655.2$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.91 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 43c | 619.31$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.01 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 20c | 522.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 55c | 454$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.7 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 31c | 405.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 43c | 309.55$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 56c | 290$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Over | 57c | 263.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 32c | 199$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 45c | 196.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 53c | 188.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 56c | 181.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 57c | 175.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 29c | 124.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 112.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Over | 25c | 105.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 43c | 91.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 86.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 29c | 72.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 56c | 55.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 45c | 43.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 56c | 38.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 32c | 36.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49a…c158backed Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 32c | 32.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 36c | 30.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 59c | 29.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 44c | 27.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 46c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 48c | 21.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.