TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7137…0c12backed Yes11c1,382$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.467417.6%13 W · 61 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c1,005$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.0812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73b2…615dbacked Yes5c1,004$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes11c781.27$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.634,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes33c635.95$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes21c599.05$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed3f…3e99backed Yes2c560$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.683531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c558.69$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes24c557.31$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.641,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No73c557.2$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.814,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes32c443.22$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6910030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c398.95$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.134,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes7c389.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.521,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes22c299.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c290$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.933,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c271$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.281,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No70c263.65$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.184,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes26c258.4$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.485349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No78c253.93$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c226.68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.596,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No76c224.62$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0815570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes10c208.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes28c203.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5825135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes26c201.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.161,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes28c199.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1826540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes8c199.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.976719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed No77c194.08$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1116157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No57c175.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0827461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes27c174.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes33c171.57$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c170.09$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes8c157.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.213020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c155.9$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.185,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes11c151.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.041,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No77c149.82$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes14c146.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.343218.8%6 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No71c146.23$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.23,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c136.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.374,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c135.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes38c130.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No76c123.86$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8517759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes22c121.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.482,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes32c121.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9916543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c120.16$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.45,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No75c116$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ef1…b97dbacked Yes18c115$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No68c111.1$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.917862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes9c110.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c109.08$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.162,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes22c107.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3927246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes47c104.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5523429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked Yes22c103.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.484864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes35c102.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.641,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes31c102.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.265,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35cc…58b7backed Yes26c102.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed No73c102$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.542853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No73c101.34$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9549551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.57832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No72c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Yes31c95.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No67c91$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3991444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00eb…313cbacked Yes33c90.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.244219%8 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick11cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.97234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No74c88.37$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3811965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes32c87.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1122849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No78c86.77$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0911169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes22c83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbd…65a3backed Yes17c80.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed Yes28c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.513167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes30c77.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9857747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c72.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6296…981cbacked Yes22c70.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.922352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes22c68.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.893,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes25c68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes26c66.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3616836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes33c64.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5113838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc6…dde3backed No72c64$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.983050%15 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes21c63.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes19c60.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes22c58.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4866758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No73c57.45$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6975546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes18c55.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.251181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No66c55.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7599962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No70c54.19$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0460550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes19c52.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.215829.7%47 W · 111 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes23c52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7511446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes26c50.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.136439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.277555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No68c46.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0854253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes23c45.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4685330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.092,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No66c42.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2591861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes55c42.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No74c41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.472,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No70c40.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3119260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9744536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9973…6e40backed Yes30c35.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.757040%28 W · 42 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes35c35.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4316532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.