TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x302c…abcebacked Yes32c1,000$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68116724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes72c728.04$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1727079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c684.56$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.482,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No26c575.21$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.284,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c562.36$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.415,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No29c541.66$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No32c491.43$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.66,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes62c476.37$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.931,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No32c445.54$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.444,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes66c422.97$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.7839427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c399.93$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.913,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a4b…0256backed Yes27c349.28$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.972123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No37c341.89$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.385,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No26c299.91$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.931,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c279$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.083,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No12c277.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.883,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No65c270.29$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8420347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes45c262.84$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.665349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No31c254.3$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5460054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No35c233$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.334,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No39c230.46$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.412,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes76c228.54$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.796,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cae…559abacked No56c210.13$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.562857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb902…06d8backed Yes48c208.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.497159.2%42 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No16c206$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.084,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes48c199.87$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2326540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c196.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.528,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…9300backed Yes48c189.43$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.23837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c187.58$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes72c186.74$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3927246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked No26c182.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.548920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No68c181$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.081,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes45c177.78$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.789832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed No44c176.58$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.375560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No42c160.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.482,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x440a…4774backed Yes64c159.98$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.811553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c157.97$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.919,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c155.9$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No58c146.88$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3163255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed No50c146.87$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1316157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c143.36$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.833,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes28c142.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.981,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes68c134.5$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0722740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed Yes47c126.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3421264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No63c125.57$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked No28c121.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.564864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes47c112.59$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5942148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes26c112.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.229635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes38c110.82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.171,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c107.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6917747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes45c107$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4263143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e1…ac51backed No53c104.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.561650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes48c104.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5445238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No48c102.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No56c101.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5116437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53a1…b1b0backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No54c95.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No61c95.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes44c95.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x697a…4024backed No53c94.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.78825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes49c94.08$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.081,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9a…587ebacked Yes72c92.75$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.21955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0518142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes72c83.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No15c83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes43c81.54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5480130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No48c80.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4416847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No53c79.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.191,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes46c65.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes56c64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.911,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef8…21e5backed Yes61c62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c60.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.021,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes50c59.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No52c59.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.031283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+54.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes49c58.95$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.069345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c58.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.664,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes27c58.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4315553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes69c58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2166758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38f2…8690backed Yes52c57.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.913658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes71c55.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.851181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes48c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.617644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe13d…4633backed Yes51c54.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.511080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+38.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.752,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No38c52.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x666d…340bbacked Yes52c51.16$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.613953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No52c51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5223958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No53c50.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9712437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes49c50.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8814932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No56c50.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1791861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.154427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3085049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes49c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.