Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x157ee989ac8e5ae8a8d546a01efb4674726fe798bb1832b7e35794a82e8c8095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 72c | 728.04$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.17 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 684.56$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 575.21$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 562.36$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 541.66$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 491.43$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 62c | 476.37$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.93 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 445.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 66c | 422.97$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 399.93$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 27c | 349.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 341.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 299.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 279$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 277.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 65c | 270.29$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.84 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 45c | 262.84$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.66 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 31c | 254.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 233$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 230.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 228.54$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 56c | 210.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 48c | 208.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 206$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 48c | 199.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 196.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…9300backed Yes | 48c | 189.43$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 187.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 72c | 186.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked No | 26c | 182.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 181$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 44c | 176.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 160.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 64c | 159.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 157.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 155.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 58c | 146.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 50c | 146.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 143.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 142.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 68c | 134.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 47c | 126.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 63c | 125.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 28c | 121.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 112.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 26c | 112.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 110.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 107.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 45c | 107$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 53c | 104.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 104.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 102.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 56c | 101.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a1…b1b0backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 95.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 95.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 95.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…4024backed No | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 94.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…587ebacked Yes | 72c | 92.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 72c | 83.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 81.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 80.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 79.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 46c | 65.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…21e5backed Yes | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 60.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 59.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 52c | 59.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 49c | 58.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 58.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 27c | 58.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 52c | 57.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes | 71c | 55.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…4633backed Yes | 51c | 54.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 38c | 52.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 52c | 51.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 53c | 50.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 49c | 50.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 50.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.