TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes32c2,231$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.4842036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No67c1,818$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.451,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes28c766$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.452,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes16c616.42$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes15c544.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.382,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…3ec7backed Yes24c485.52$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes22c429.46$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes16c399.92$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8313430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c374.92$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.652,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c368$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.484,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c336.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.198,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a4b…0256backed Yes33c329.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.92123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c299.88$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.652,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No69c293.4$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4924546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes12c264.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1396620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c259.96$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes14c234.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes12c224.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.117729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No70c205$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.241,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes17c200.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.515717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes18c199.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.533,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cae…559abacked No67c195.71$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.062857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed Yes18c195.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.999852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No79c182.98$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c176.28$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.114,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes12c162.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No80c155.9$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.275,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No68c153.45$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.791,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes12c150.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.791,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c150.22$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.065,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes36c146.53$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.261,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes35c143.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes37c142.46$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.397926.6%21 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aca…6977backed Yes24c137.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.236232.3%20 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No68c135$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes15c132.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8320327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c120.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked Yes17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.414034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes18c113.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes23c111.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes13c110$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes19c107.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc64…2c70backed Yes16c107.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.872429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes23c105$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5348523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes15c102.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes26c101.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.441,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3127754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c2…3c0abacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1713531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No78c99.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.74,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes28c98.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.182,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No80c98.18$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1249675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c97.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.957,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes15c95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No78c93.47$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked Yes36c92.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1313444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c91$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.242,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes27c85.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.92,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes32c84.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.987437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No67c77$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4189557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c76.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c73.27$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.586,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24ef…cc87backed Yes36c69.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x445f…cc13backed Yes35c63.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.346540%26 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ee…0662backed Yes34c63.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.247530.7%23 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda24…7e54backed Yes25c54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes26c50.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1342148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No70c48.43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.722,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.159,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No74c44.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5860550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No74c44.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3138454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed Yes34c43.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.849935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c42.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.991,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes28c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.762,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.114,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x431a…88a2backed No75c39.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.825884.5%49 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick76cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9755…11afbacked Yes29c38.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9156backed Yes32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124434.1%15 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes32c35.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3830136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c35.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.914,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No65c35.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes34c32.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.97835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…1c49backed Yes36c30.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No69c29.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.082,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No69c29.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0515669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9915555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No75c28.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.233,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377d…ddddbacked No70c28.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No72c25.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.162,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No67c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2626067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.