World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59eced6a00be4addcaa2724a8077708c8857f13cbae92dfc880e37a17a5b93be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 50c | 1,402$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 980.48$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.44 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 50c | 880.34$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.92 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 4c | 870.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked No | 4c | 789.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 745.74$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 55c | 619.73$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.31 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 532.14$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.59 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 64c | 471.66$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 18c | 412.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 54c | 326.96$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.44 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 54c | 276.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 41c | 268.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 47c | 248.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 219.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 46c | 214.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 56c | 170.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 157.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 50c | 134.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 80c | 130.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 129.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 126.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 20c | 121.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 54c | 118.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 67c | 118$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked No | 20c | 115.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 40c | 115.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 45c | 111.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…afdabacked No | 42c | 108.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 105.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 52c | 104.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 101.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…2ed5backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 14c | 84.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed No | 42c | 79.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 42c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 56c | 67.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 45c | 67.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 49c | 66.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 52c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 48c | 65.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 65c | 65.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 46c | 64.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 57c | 64.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 64c | 61.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed No | 34c | 53.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed No | 39c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…56acbacked No | 48c | 51.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…849ebacked Yes | 72c | 49.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 56c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Yes | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 56c | 47.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 44c | 45.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 45c | 44.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 68c | 44.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 45c | 44.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 46c | 43.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 40.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed No | 39c | 38.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 72c | 38.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed Yes | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 59c | 36.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 52c | 36.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984b…3c50backed Yes | 54c | 35.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 45c | 35.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked No | 43c | 32.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…6c5cbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed No | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…d970backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked No | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.