World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed04ff868e4cddbe621979f63bc8ea3ea3611a770c8db37ae24cd65b8687f785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 29c | 822.17$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.84 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 40c | 698.99$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.94 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 7c | 695.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 534.63$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.34 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 467.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 10c | 436.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 426.88$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 30c | 421.26$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.84 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 18c | 407.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…01e6backed Yes | 77c | 362.32$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 26c | 326.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.03 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 305.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 70c | 303.9$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 22c | 243.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.81 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 235.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 61c | 224.78$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 33c | 222.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 215.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 176.95$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed No | 25c | 167.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 20c | 153.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 11c | 152.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 35c | 152.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 35c | 145$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 32c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 77c | 135.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 8c | 133.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 23c | 131.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 17c | 130.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 35c | 126.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 121.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 115.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…db8cbacked Yes | 17c | 115.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 30c | 111$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 25c | 105.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Yes | 25c | 99.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 12c | 93.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 44c | 91.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 31c | 84.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 78c | 84.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 78c | 83.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 58c | 82.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked No | 25c | 79.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 23c | 78.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed No | 30c | 76.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 21c | 76.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 18c | 74.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 78c | 70.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 28c | 69.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 72c | 67.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 20c | 67.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 26c | 66.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…afdabacked Yes | 43c | 65.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 47c | 64.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 19c | 63.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 32c | 63.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 23c | 61.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 24c | 61.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 18c | 60.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 65c | 60.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 60.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 22c | 59.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 27c | 57.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 76c | 54.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed No | 29c | 53.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 19c | 52.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 23c | 48.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 77c | 46.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 32c | 45.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed No | 29c | 45.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 77c | 39.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 37.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed No | 28c | 36.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 36.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 69c | 35.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 70c | 32.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 71c | 32.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 34c | 32.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 30.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 72c | 29.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed No | 38c | 28.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.