TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes29c822.17$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8411636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes40c698.99$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.944358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes7c695.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.432020%4 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c534.63$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3411039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes5c467.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2612816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes10c436.91$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No73c426.88$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8521844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No30c421.26$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.842832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes18c407.07$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.262015%3 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-40%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8372…01e6backed Yes77c362.32$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.54540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No26c326.96$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.0327521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes41c305.27$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7910629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No70c303.9$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.91361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No22c243.66$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.8144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c235.98$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.711936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No61c224.78$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.346533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes33c222.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4110733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes19c215.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.23735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c176.95$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6815356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed No25c167.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.436336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No20c153.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2532639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes11c152.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes35c152.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-64%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes35c145$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.145251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes32c140$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.441225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes77c135.17$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.783262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes8c133.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes23c131.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.721850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes17c130.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.741421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes35c126.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.942759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes16c121.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8240648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes31c115.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.984037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcb…db8cbacked Yes17c115.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes30c111$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes25c105.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.424922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e8…64e4backed Yes25c99.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes12c93.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.541353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes44c91.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes31c84.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.967020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes78c84.25$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.811344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes78c83.33$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.847561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No58c82.82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.416229%18 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.972157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked No25c79.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.131723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No23c78.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.487345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed No30c76.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7312238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes21c76.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.991758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83fc…aae2backed Yes80c75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed Yes18c74.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.442657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed Yes78c70.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.92556%14 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No28c69.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.075141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes72c67.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.27560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…b2b8backed Yes20c67.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No26c66.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4212040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3ff…afdabacked Yes43c65.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes47c64.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.017842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes19c63.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.342941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No32c63.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No23c61.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.565030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes24c61.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes18c60.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes65c60.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.016462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c60.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.737951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.98739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked Yes77c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.531152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No22c59.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes27c57.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes76c54.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.44761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaa…88a2backed No29c53.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.771145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17a8…3509backed Yes19c52.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0330%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.494647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed No51c49.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes23c48.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.134551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No44c48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.888937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed Yes77c46.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.85850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9838…8469backed No32c45.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfc…31b1backed No29c45.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+243%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked No55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes77c39.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No74c37.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.754852.1%25 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed No28c36.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.038235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No73c36.02$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.735250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9337…4fc6backed Yes69c35.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.656556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes29c34.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9218669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05bc…008abacked No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.265100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes70c32.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.965064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4204…165abacked No71c32.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.65875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes34c32.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.283366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No79c30.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4426632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.862450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes72c29.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.29650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed No38c28.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.731741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.422433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed Yes59c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.292343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.