NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a7282cf9059530e97985e0412e100946385c1abef7899696769bd5d79f0d398
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d16…c595backed Under | 63c | 1,260$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 19c | 1,176$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 79c | 920.79$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 37c | 619.63$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 44c | 578.14$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.05 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 36c | 471.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.86 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 373.04$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 41c | 363.95$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.73 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 26c | 270$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 62c | 240$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 31c | 155$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 63c | 134.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 42c | 105.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 61c | 92.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 36c | 91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 84.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under | 68c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 72.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 62c | 64.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 66c | 64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 37c | 63.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 49.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 59c | 45.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 44c | 45.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 58c | 32.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 54c | 27.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 60c | 27.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 70c | 19.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5this page
- Kings vs. KrakenKings won
- Kings vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kings vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kings vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.