TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes57c892.2$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.7260236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes50c774.19$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38625933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes54c560.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No46c453.16$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.954,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No42c397.29$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.3310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No42c331.36$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.961,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No43c261.15$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.041,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c257$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.146,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No50c248.55$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.282,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes58c205.08$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4628847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…d647backed Yes60c167.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No26c148.32$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.341,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No41c145.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9317859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes58c130.17$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.971,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No37c123.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.134831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No47c120$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.042,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c116.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.074,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No44c116.06$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.453,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes62c105.81$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2977151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c97.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.264,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No41c94.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.672,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c92.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes54c90.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0919252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No47c90.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes57c87.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.771,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes52c83.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1528142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c81.62$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No43c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.63,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes57c78.82$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.242,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No49c77.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.185,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No14c72.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9998236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes58c65.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7384124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3303…73e3backed No41c60.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.772965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2184…d271backed No41c58.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.783644.4%16 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No44c57.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.34,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c54.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.563,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No49c54.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.712,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No32c53.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.186847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes59c50.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306240.3%25 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3727852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes75c45.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No45c45.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.964,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No54c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.777555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No46c42.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.051,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3af9…b4bbbacked No40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.26556.9%37 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No41c39.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.451,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No47c39.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.152,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No43c38.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1518247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf810…e67bbacked No41c37.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No42c35.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.547856.4%44 W · 34 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes63c35.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2261676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No43c34.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7219956.3%112 W · 87 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked No37c34.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7429927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No42c34.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes78c34.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5813448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes56c33.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.831,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No43c32.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5428163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes52c30.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0354656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5c…a906backed Yes60c30.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.01366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8189…a808backed Yes57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.12842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6514243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes58c29.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0728546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No41c29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed No42c28.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6522454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed Yes55c25.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No43c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2521352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd33e…8736backed No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.353554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed No41c24.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5313350.4%67 W · 66 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes56c22.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.859938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes49c22.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1137144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes52c21.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c21.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ec…d394backed Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.425261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20f2…a18ebacked Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbc…9feabacked Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b27…ff88backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.469849%48 W · 50 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf05…c401backed Yes61c17.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes78c14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9625947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.