Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b28cc232f229396151fb14f6330f966b6dafa1e64c9f9b2d082fff63cd6e9bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moez Echarguiof Edas Butvilas, Moez Echargui
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Moez Echargui | 30c | 5,067$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542.52 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Edas Butvilas | 70c | 3,207$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.03 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Moez Echargui | 5c | 2,226$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.18 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Edas Butvilas | 63c | 2,000$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.83 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Moez Echargui | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Moez Echargui | 34c | 1,087$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.33 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Edas Butvilas | 76c | 923.7$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.08 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Edas Butvilas | 59c | 906.86$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.64 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…b19cbacked Edas Butvilas | 5c | 900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Moez Echargui | 40c | 849.09$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.84 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Edas Butvilas | 79c | 761.58$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.42 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Moez Echargui | 4c | 495.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.23 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Moez Echargui | 30c | 453.61$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.04 | 483 | 31.1%150 W · 333 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Edas Butvilas | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Edas Butvilas | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Moez Echargui | 45c | 377.13$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.89 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Moez Echargui | 8c | 334.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.38 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…bacdbacked Moez Echargui | 31c | 309.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Edas Butvilas | 69c | 258.44$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.44 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Moez Echargui | 31c | 257.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Moez Echargui | 44c | 235.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Moez Echargui | 45c | 207.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…1b41backed Edas Butvilas | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Edas Butvilas | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Moez Echargui | 17c | 187.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.02 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…6e89backed Moez Echargui | 45c | 184.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Edas Butvilas | 21c | 174.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed Edas Butvilas | 36c | 162.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Edas Butvilas | 70c | 153.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 523 | 55.6%291 W · 232 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Moez Echargui | 40c | 150.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Moez Echargui | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 311 | 64.3%200 W · 111 L | +36.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Moez Echargui | 16c | 145.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Edas Butvilas | 71c | 140.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Moez Echargui | 45c | 140.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Edas Butvilas | 67c | 132.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Edas Butvilas | 42c | 124.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…164bbacked Moez Echargui | 14c | 123.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 275 | 28.4%78 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd74…00a1backed Moez Echargui | 40c | 116.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 496 | 58.1%288 W · 208 L | +32.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Moez Echargui | 44c | 112.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Edas Butvilas | 65c | 112.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Edas Butvilas | 69c | 100.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Moez Echargui | 29c | 100.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 439 | 52.4%230 W · 209 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Moez Echargui | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Edas Butvilas | 62c | 94.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed Edas Butvilas | 69c | 87.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…3c83backed Edas Butvilas | 54c | 85.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Edas Butvilas | 57c | 76.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Moez Echargui | 25c | 76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 592 | 53.5%317 W · 275 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Edas Butvilas | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -19.3wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd15c…9355backed Edas Butvilas | 80c | 65.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -7.4wins | -0.46per pick | 77cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Moez Echargui | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…6520backed Moez Echargui | 32c | 64.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Moez Echargui | 27c | 58.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Moez Echargui | 37c | 50.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 514 | 57.2%294 W · 220 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Edas Butvilas | 74c | 49.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Moez Echargui | 44c | 49.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Edas Butvilas | 70c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…6b00backed Moez Echargui | 40c | 45.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 476 | 51.9%247 W · 229 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Edas Butvilas | 63c | 42.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f12…95c3backed Edas Butvilas | 62c | 41.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.8wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Edas Butvilas | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Moez Echargui | 37c | 39.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Edas Butvilas | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Edas Butvilas | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Moez Echargui | 39c | 31.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Moez Echargui | 40c | 30.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb1…e1d6backed Edas Butvilas | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Edas Butvilas | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Edas Butvilas | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 234 | 27.4%64 W · 170 L | -40.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Edas Butvilas | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked Edas Butvilas | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 347 | 29.4%102 W · 245 L | -35.6wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Edas Butvilas | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Edas Butvilas | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Edas Butvilas | 67c | 18.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Edas Butvilas | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d92…48e4backed Moez Echargui | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Edas Butvilas | 68c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8318…34a6backed Edas Butvilas | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 100 | 32%32 W · 68 L | -30.3wins | -0.30per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 23-0.24 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echarguithis page
- Set Handicap: Butvilas (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5)Echargui won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.