Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b3f65e562e9cb7be12abe104326c36c10323bd76a35e6de894f37bbb74eaed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85f0…3f67backed Yes | 54c | 13,656$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350.19 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 46c | 9,080$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,894.74 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 55c | 5,172$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.89 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 46c | 4,782$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.27 | 173 | 39.9%69 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 45c | 3,953$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.72 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 45c | 2,774$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.8 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 54c | 2,279$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.46 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 46c | 1,594$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.43 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed Yes | 55c | 1,455$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 1,183$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.33 | 543 | 40.5%220 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 46c | 986.2$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.55 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 833.17$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.98 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 49c | 815.78$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.02 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 45c | 268$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 47c | 265$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 47c | 265$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Yes | 8c | 216$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…8d38backed Yes | 55c | 139.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Yes | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 46c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…5ae1backed Yes | 30c | 117.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…a17cbacked Yes | 53c | 98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 68cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 46c | 88.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed No | 70c | 70.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 70.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…70f7backed Yes | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked No | 46c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…afedbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0b80backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 41.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…a556backed Yes | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed No | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b20…de61backed No | 46c | 27.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…0c8fbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 54c | 19.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC leading at halftime?this page
- Hull City AFC leading at halftime?Yes won
- Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.