World Politics · resolved market
Prince Andrew released by February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b6740d3e8234856374844c277ccc59533a5346b83589b9f468ed86dff5a3d3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 2c | 1,384$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 69c | 599.99$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…e7d2backed No | 29c | 366.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…e63cbacked No | 31c | 322.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 21c | 239.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 76c | 182.37$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 71c | 143.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe506…1bccbacked No | 31c | 130.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed No | 54c | 64.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 21c | 55.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 69c | 55.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…8740backed Yes | 57c | 52.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +291.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +450.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed Yes | 57c | 48.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fef…4c41backed No | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 75c | 35.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…be16backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa853…58a9backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…b441backed Yes | 55c | 18.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Prince Andrew released by February 21?this page
- Prince Andrew released by February 19?Yes won
- Prince Andrew released by February 20?Yes won
- Prince Andrew released by February 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.