World Politics · resolved market
Prince Andrew released by February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61d67dc2b0bc127f113bdbf799a032fa194a533b889bd03dbf3f7c34b7a30f97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1d8…e7d2backed No | 30c | 1,381$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 7c | 1,316$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 3c | 801.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 712$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 61c | 655.57$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.82 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 63c | 620.42$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.46 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 69c | 606.95$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.95 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…0721backed No | 2c | 523.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…6a57backed No | 38c | 357.39$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d63…1b7fbacked No | 33c | 302.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed No | 28c | 271.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 34c | 240$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 61c | 239.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 79c | 234.28$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 66c | 230$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe506…1bccbacked No | 35c | 202.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…ffb4backed Yes | 66c | 181.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 64c | 127.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 62c | 115.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 111.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed No | 67c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 61c | 90.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…be16backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…8740backed Yes | 30c | 76.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +291.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2291…2431backed No | 33c | 44.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 33c | 44.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…411cbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabaa…62a5backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…63fcbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e56…3a1ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Prince Andrew released by February 20?this page
- Prince Andrew released by February 19?Yes won
- Prince Andrew released by February 21?Yes won
- Prince Andrew released by February 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.