NFL · resolved market
PHI vs. BAL: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b752b8e0e29be90dc63611678dd4742feb859e0b6e90a25debb9fc9a6257487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 3,955$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.14 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 47c | 3,050$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 52c | 2,086$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.28 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 1,888$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.52 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 55c | 1,774$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.16 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 54c | 1,654$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.52 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed Over | 50c | 702.56$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 485.54$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.77 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 359.66$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.85 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked Over | 54c | 344.44$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 46c | 337$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.79 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 54c | 236$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 57c | 189.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 46c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over | 22c | 94.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 47c | 91.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 46c | 77.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 46c | 27.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 52c | 24.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 48c | 21.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 19.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PHI vs. BAL: O/U 36.5this page
- Eagles vs. RavensRavens won
- PHI vs. BAL: O/U 37.5Under won
- Spread: PHI (-1.5)BAL won
- Spread: PHI (-2.5)BAL won
- Spread: PHI (-3.5)BAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.