NFL · resolved market
Spread: PHI (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3decaab6cff67f58fbb6f63d4a463b4492aadd3823a3da6ea48840672604e36f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALof PHI, BAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked BAL | 50c | 22,714$11,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,338.63 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked PHI | 49c | 9,568$4,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,642.45 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed PHI | 51c | 7,300$3,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,722.99 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked BAL | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed PHI | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed BAL | 49c | 2,051$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.01 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed PHI | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed PHI | 50c | 1,762$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.38 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed PHI | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked PHI | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed BAL | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed PHI | 50c | 743.55$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.78 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked PHI | 53c | 670.75$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed PHI | 51c | 577.96$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.87 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed PHI | 50c | 511.84$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed PHI | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -6.6wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed PHI | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked BAL | 52c | 438.46$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked PHI | 49c | 395$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked BAL | 48c | 365$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed PHI | 51c | 360.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed PHI | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed BAL | 49c | 202.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed BAL | 48c | 142.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed PHI | 52c | 108.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed PHI | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed PHI | 52c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked BAL | 50c | 83.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed BAL | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed PHI | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed BAL | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed BAL | 49c | 67.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked PHI | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked PHI | 49c | 56.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed PHI | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed BAL | 52c | 52.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed PHI | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed BAL | 52c | 36.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked BAL | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed PHI | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed PHI | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…99b2backed PHI | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed BAL | 51c | 29.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked PHI | 49c | 28.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed PHI | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked BAL | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PHI (-3.5)this page
- Eagles vs. RavensRavens won
- PHI vs. BAL: O/U 36.5Under won
- PHI vs. BAL: O/U 37.5Under won
- Spread: PHI (-1.5)BAL won
- Spread: PHI (-2.5)BAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.