Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ba2a9ee966eb41f79299d2726ab3507f4ad7fbf3c3bc66b879d1e9500476bc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 50c | 1,848$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.68 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 44c | 283.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…9a17backed No | 50c | 242.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 41c | 197.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.68 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 8c | 193$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 38c | 153.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 46c | 139.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 37c | 113$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…2e29backed No | 13c | 86.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 81.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 52c | 76.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 68.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…7714backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 46c | 52.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 69c | 44.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 43.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 41.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 55c | 32.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 64c | 30.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 25.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c19…cd48backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 40-59 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.