MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ba83a3b78174bb5d3320ce01c2aff6894e68c7fec4135771f7e005aeb6f796f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diamondbacksof Royals, Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32fb…90b3backed Diamondbacks | 57c | 9,998$5,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,299.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…396abacked Royals | 43c | 9,998$4,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,299.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 12c | 6,384$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.88 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 56c | 4,345$2,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.84 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…293abacked Diamondbacks | 60c | 3,332$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.46 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 12c | 3,116$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.1 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…e520backed Royals | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 279 | 53.4%149 W · 130 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 43c | 2,425$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.62 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Diamondbacks | 57c | 2,400$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Diamondbacks | 56c | 2,400$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068 | 382 | 49.5%189 W · 193 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 29c | 2,150$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Diamondbacks | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 313 | 46.6%146 W · 167 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Royals | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.99 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Royals | 42c | 1,680$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.5 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Royals | 1c | 1,283$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 37c | 1,280$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.68 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf273…6116backed Royals | 45c | 1,190$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4743backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,190$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Diamondbacks | 54c | 1,112$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.58 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…97e1backed Royals | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Royals | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Diamondbacks | 60c | 812.03$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.99 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Diamondbacks | 55c | 735.18$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.83 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Royals | 12c | 667.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 272 | 13.6%37 W · 235 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Diamondbacks | 58c | 599.6$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.83 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Royals | 3c | 546$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…3e67backed Royals | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…398cbacked Royals | 4c | 474$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Royals | 7c | 446.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 223 | 12.1%27 W · 196 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…aae3backed Royals | 42c | 395.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 444 | 43%191 W · 253 L | +21.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e93…a140backed Royals | 44c | 337.5$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Royals | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Diamondbacks | 76c | 285.35$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…33d6backed Diamondbacks | 56c | 250.87$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 46c | 234.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Royals | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 563 | 51%287 W · 276 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Royals | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Diamondbacks | 57c | 205$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Royals | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals | 19c | 188.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Diamondbacks | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Royals | 42c | 132$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Royals | 46c | 120.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Royals | 44c | 117.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Royals | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 45.9%264 W · 311 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 113.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Royals | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Royals | 43c | 99.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…8d53backed Royals | 47c | 91.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Royals | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 53%132 W · 117 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Royals | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 268 | 47.4%127 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…4bfcbacked Royals | 46c | 70.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Diamondbacks | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…a0a5backed Royals | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Diamondbacks | 58c | 59.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Royals | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…3284backed Royals | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Royals | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Royals | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Diamondbacks | 58c | 48.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Royals | 44c | 46.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x794f…5818backed Diamondbacks | 61c | 46.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…ebc4backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…bcb9backed Royals | 47c | 36.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…227dbacked Royals | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc734…5d68backed Royals | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Royals | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…9743backed Royals | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…f04fbacked Diamondbacks | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.