Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc5fee7158b8ca530e41876caad32903980183b9ccf1d0a9bbb21503046ae7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 2c | 4,369$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 52c | 1,845$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.58 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 28c | 1,755$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.7 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 27c | 1,574$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.36 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 59c | 1,129$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.81 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 71c | 868.28$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.48 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 71c | 652.73$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.44 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…3253backed Yes | 29c | 620.69$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d80…219abacked Yes | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…90e1backed No | 73c | 442.47$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…37e6backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Yes | 75c | 384.82$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 25c | 354.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.16 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…8e5bbacked Yes | 28c | 353.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 50c | 335$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 323$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.02 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc9…8ee4backed Yes | 29c | 275.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e688backed No | 73c | 274.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0c85backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 73c | 236.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 197 | 35.5%70 W · 127 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…ae0fbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 71c | 125.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 28c | 87.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x996f…3748backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…7c2fbacked No | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fa…7bd1backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…5cdbbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…0a02backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…7d9dbacked No | 72c | 65.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…a64bbacked Yes | 29c | 61.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 76c | 55.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7350…3c71backed Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…24f9backed Yes | 28c | 46.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…63a7backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3390…95d6backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…79d4backed Yes | 79c | 24.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 53c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.