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La Liga · resolved market

Spread: Real Racing Club (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Elche CFof Real Racing Club, Elche CF
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,745

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,132 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x821d…cf16backed Elche CF67c4,767$3,217 inWon+$1,550.0211041.8%46 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Real Racing Club12c2,931$365 inLost-$364.873432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3a…e974backed Real Racing Club9c2,483$224 inLost-$223.9510443.3%45 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Real Racing Club13c1,380$175 inLost-$174.9267839.2%266 W · 412 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Real Racing Club53c828.75$437 inLost-$437.441,18732.4%385 W · 802 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Real Racing Club11c475.14$53 inLost-$52.61,64538.6%635 W · 1,010 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Elche CF69c432.3$298 inWon+$134.74854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Elche CF68c311.99$213 inWon+$99.428046.3%37 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Real Racing Club8c252$20 inLost-$20.164,85647%2,282 W · 2,574 L-17.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Elche CF56c201.27$113 inWon+$88.5617039.4%67 W · 103 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed Real Racing Club13c200$25 inLost-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eab…6a7dbacked Elche CF35c65.86$23 inWon+$43.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+61.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7eb…da58backed Real Racing Club74c50$37 inLost-$371450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Real Racing Club57c44.91$26 inLost-$25.6432635.3%115 W · 211 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Real Racing Club77c28$21 inLost-$21.446445.3%29 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…5275backed Real Racing Club45c22.26$10 inLost-$10.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Elche CF69c16.55$11 inWon+$5.162352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.