Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c56e4d68d1c4875be9514110677583c4f3d041980aafada152ad08fe95e7b39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 26c | 1,565$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.13 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 21c | 1,420$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.19 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 780.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 416.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 350$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 18c | 295.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 266.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 236.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 20c | 219.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 196.4$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 184.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 153.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 133$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 120.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 14c | 108.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 98.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575c…544bbacked Yes | 14c | 96.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 16c | 96.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…e045backed Yes | 18c | 93.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 75c | 87.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 12c | 87.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 85.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 17c | 74.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 29c | 74.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 72.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 70.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 72c | 69.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 15c | 65.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 60.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 23c | 58.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 20c | 51.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 32c | 50.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 28c | 37.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 35.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 35.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 79c | 34.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 79c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…bbbebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…bad1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 79c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.