Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d9ce442f886096116ef9aff720f56309a717e5843c9d118f8049ab0dde7178
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 23c | 1,279$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.76 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 961.61$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 20c | 705.24$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.98 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 24c | 386.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.97 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 350$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 333.92$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 71c | 313.02$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.12 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 27c | 285.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.41 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 31c | 284.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.75 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 270$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 248.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 209.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 31c | 199.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 196.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 185.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 179.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 174.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 157.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 153.06$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 124.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 116.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 108.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…e045backed Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 71c | 102.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 79c | 100.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 100.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 96.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 26c | 92.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 34c | 88.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 70c | 86.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…5ae7backed No | 80c | 78.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 73.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 72.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…809cbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 65.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 64.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 76c | 64.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 59.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 56.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 36c | 54.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 54.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 74c | 54.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…6a8fbacked Yes | 26c | 48.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27f…9628backed Yes | 37c | 46.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 45.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 45c | 41.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 78c | 41.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 75c | 40.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 40.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 38.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 38.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 34.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 30.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 51c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 28.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 49c | 27.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 25.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 75c | 25.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 24.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 16.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 77c | 15.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 71c | 14.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 13.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.