Serie A · resolved market
FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9a9544e64c91b2612798111cb98cd862e6db5f3cbbdc414b2fa912e7d02e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 22c | 2,184$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.56 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 80c | 1,254$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 20c | 1,046$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.18 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 953.04$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.29 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 79c | 267.46$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 232.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc598…b4acbacked Over | 22c | 192.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 21c | 146.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 79c | 98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 79c | 96.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 22c | 90.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 21c | 86.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae59…c97fbacked Under | 80c | 61.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 78c | 44.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Under | 80c | 43.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 80c | 39.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…7a9dbacked Under | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 78c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.