Serie A · resolved market

FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52e75c8d651f44b569bdc3763fbb2c19142fc5bda13038e2bde58cf0768241f7

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 14, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $63,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,240 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Under	38c	48,157$18,299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29,857.03	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+4.8wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+33%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	61c	30,086$18,357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,357.41	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	62c	7,800$4,836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,836	455	47%214 W · 241 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Over	62c	4,000$2,480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,480	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	24c	1,469$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.94	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over	25c	1,089$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.59	69	24.6%17 W · 52 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under	58c	863.03$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$363.03	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under	37c	742.9$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468.03	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over	62c	695.08$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.95	164	48.8%80 W · 84 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over	62c	629$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.27	160	46.3%74 W · 86 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	62c	612.31$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.56	985	44.9%442 W · 543 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over	63c	501.3$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.82	72	54.2%39 W · 33 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	37c	499.97$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.98	229	47.6%109 W · 120 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7fd…6c23backed Under	41c	489.71$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289.71	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	62c	485.03$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	87	57.5%50 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	54c	428.7$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.2	932	52%485 W · 447 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	44c	418.36$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over	62c	397.16$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.24	195	42.6%83 W · 112 L	-10.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over	29c	311.41$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Over	55c	305.45$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over	34c	297.35$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	107	36.4%39 W · 68 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over	48c	255.38$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1d…95debacked Over	63c	238.1$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over	63c	207$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.41	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	66cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96db…f7f9backed Over	63c	161.9$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over	62c	161.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Over	63c	161$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.43	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+31%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	62c	160.05$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	75	52%39 W · 36 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Over	61c	159.45$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.27	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over	63c	158.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	64cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ed…2b21backed Over	63c	156.24$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.43	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+22%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	51c	152.94$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	156	48.7%76 W · 80 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under	37c	112.25$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.62	98	26.5%26 W · 72 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	38c	100$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a92…5a5ebacked Over	63c	100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Under	38c	100$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	98	44.9%44 W · 54 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	31c	99.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	38c	95.61$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.5	179	55.3%99 W · 80 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over	34c	92.86$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.57	111	44.1%49 W · 62 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	51c	88.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	387	39.8%154 W · 233 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf3c9…3a79backed Over	62c	80.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	77.3%17 W · 5 L	+4.3wins	+0.19per pick	58cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	62c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.6	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	63c	79.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	179	58.7%105 W · 74 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f6…fcd2backed Over	63c	79.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	71.7%33 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	68cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa614…7d4cbacked Over	40c	70$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.3	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	63c	63.49$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	345	53.9%186 W · 159 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Over	48c	58.2$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.18	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	52c	56.27$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.24	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x282a…2866backed Over	45c	55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb166…3105backed Under	37c	54.05$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.05	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b2d…379dbacked Under	39c	51.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbd…475fbacked Over	62c	48.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4f…73a6backed Under	37c	48$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.24	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…6a00backed Over	63c	47.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf625…2834backed Over	63c	47.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over	53c	41.45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.95	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf164…e98fbacked Over	63c	39.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Over	63c	39.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	-8.4wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-20%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Over	63c	39.51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	55	58.2%32 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e75…e81dbacked Over	62c	38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.56	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	38c	37$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.76	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Under	37c	36$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.68	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebc…bb17backed Under	37c	34$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.42	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Over	62c	34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d2…dc9bbacked Under	37c	34$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.42	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	38c	33.68$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.88	331	44.7%148 W · 183 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over	37c	33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf18…7a1abacked Over	62c	32.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	59cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89f3…04d0backed Under	77c	32.52$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.48	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	71cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1163…3642backed Over	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d6c…2854backed Over	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda30…46b3backed Over	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	50.6%40 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7fb…3935backed Over	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Over	63c	29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over	62c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd861…931abacked Over	63c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c4…81dabacked Over	62c	19.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bca…dcaabacked Over	62c	17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5this page
FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Under won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event