Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cb634e934af81f36ec5d1b83bba9792799beef6143e9232e24b3495bb5c7dcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 2,107$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 3c | 1,058$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 33c | 428.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 59c | 349.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 349.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 64c | 186.6$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 155$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 152.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 130.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 63c | 130.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 54c | 127.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 111.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 33c | 100.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 51c | 97.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 61c | 96.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 96.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 85.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 85.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 80.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 77.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 52c | 74.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 64.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 47c | 57.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 54c | 47.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 67c | 46.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 38c | 46.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 49c | 43.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 49c | 39.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 66c | 39.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 38.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 37.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 49c | 35.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 34.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 71c | 32.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 32.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 62c | 32.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 30.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 67c | 29.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 27.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 25.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 64c | 25.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 68c | 23.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 70c | 22.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…143dbacked Yes | 50c | 21.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…1334backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.