Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cda5bf50fa749417757be9986855bb95b413045157b7c5c219315b06b31ec7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 19c | 21,898$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,099.55 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 75c | 1,727$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.75 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 75c | 1,080$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 25c | 1,007$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.87 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 972.94$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.99 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 30c | 409.91$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 27c | 368.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 367.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 73c | 367$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 69c | 324$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 212.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…519dbacked Over | 25c | 148.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Over | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 27c | 59.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Over | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 29c | 42.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed Under | 73c | 37.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…18ddbacked Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 73c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Under | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3e…b00dbacked Under | 72c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Under | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…d8c3backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Under | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Under | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…0014backed Under | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…f4d2backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.