NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d0a941fe4ba1be92c73c9ad655c484894969b8c820b93d04fb489493c419f10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 51c | 7,960$4,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,059.52 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 6,074$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.6 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…7a59backed Under | 49c | 5,820$2,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 4,983$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,471.87 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 3,948$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Under | 49c | 2,666$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.92 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 2,201$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…9435backed Under | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…388cbacked Over | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 2,090$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 1,820$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.16 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 1,544$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.08 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 52c | 1,301$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.52 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Under | 48c | 793.9$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.83 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 48c | 643.21$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.74 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 480$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 52c | 472.03$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 401.89$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…a5d8backed Under | 44c | 381.27$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Over | 55c | 290.91$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 211.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Over | 54c | 211.11$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 47c | 211$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 210.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 200.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…0b12backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 183.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 49c | 144$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 51c | 119.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 53c | 89.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Under | 47c | 69.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 48.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 34.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…0b62backed Over | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 52c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…c4e7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Warriors won
- Trail Blazers vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.