NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1266b461fdb8396cfe63f6fa9c2bfb7646ca4f0b16a7b0b394fb603318dcf3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Warriors | 53c | 44,648$23,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,186.59 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc640…d55fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 13,542$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors | 51c | 7,135$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,496.03 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…3d20backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 54c | 5,268$2,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,442.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 4,325$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…7a59backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 4,125$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.97 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 1,985$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.95 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,197$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…9ad1backed Warriors | 56c | 1,002$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 918.23$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.47 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 699.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 637.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 585.42$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 528.52$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.78 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 40c | 507.59$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Warriors | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 467.91$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 420$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 625 | 39.4%246 W · 379 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 289.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…b6f1backed Warriors | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…3598backed Warriors | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 56c | 180.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Warriors | 56c | 178.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Warriors | 51c | 152.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bd…8b0ebacked Warriors | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 149.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Warriors | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Trail Blazers | 29c | 144.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Warriors | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 92 | 69.6%64 W · 28 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Warriors | 53c | 124$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Warriors | 53c | 115.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 102.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -10.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e1…f855backed Warriors | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 287 | 42.9%123 W · 164 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Warriors | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Warriors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 70.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 40.7%81 W · 118 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Warriors | 53c | 61.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 56c | 57.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…d081backed Warriors | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Warriors | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Warriors | 57c | 43.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Warriors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 37.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 36.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Warriors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 33.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…a628backed Warriors | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Trail Blazers | 43c | 31.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Trail Blazers | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 29.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…66a2backed Warriors | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb771…e3fbbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Trail Blazers vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.