NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d2e09f1c4bd1d48db014e691f220732823c79b9032280e2cd7795a02080c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 44,474$21,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,604.29 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Under | 52c | 28,850$15,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,848.2 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 20,637$10,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,112.11 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 50c | 13,000$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 50c | 7,351$3,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675.69 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 5,997$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,938.53 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 5,595$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,165$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Over | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 50c | 999.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.81 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 920.58$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.01 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 50c | 888$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 440$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 48c | 360.42$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.42 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 47c | 228$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 50c | 208$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 48c | 86.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 79.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Under | 48c | 61.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 51.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 52c | 50.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 50.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Warriors won
- Trail Blazers vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.