MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d13e1cb88f6f70d8387ac476ba3c7be3adf798814c6537c8d03d16f587507b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 57c | 48,727$27,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,952.45 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 38,412$18,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,152.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 10,684$4,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,347.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 43c | 8,490$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650.7 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 43c | 4,652$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.36 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 43c | 1,786$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.13 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 59c | 1,779$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.15 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 43c | 1,106$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.66 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 21c | 999.75$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.25 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 43c | 875$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.25 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 814$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.02 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 43c | 692.88$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.94 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 41c | 525.13$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.45 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 62c | 512.09$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.41 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked Under | 46c | 497.16$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 449.76$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 399.13$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 49c | 391.75$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Under | 64c | 386.19$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 70c | 301.47$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 60c | 243.76$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.76 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 229.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.05 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 45c | 206.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 158$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Over | 44c | 129.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 127.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 42c | 116.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 43c | 100.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 43c | 81.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 47c | 81.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 44c | 68.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Over | 40c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 43c | 55.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 45c | 54.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451c…ce4ebacked Under | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 56c | 47.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 43.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 42c | 43.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…055bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 42c | 34.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed Under | 62c | 30.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 75c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.