MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf867f768048282af4ca26dca04afb176f80f50f67018aa00474a9f2cc2eb12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 43,707$27,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,608.53 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 40,000$15,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,200 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 2,745$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 1,884$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 1,821$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.76 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 1,755$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.98 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 1,343$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 965.09$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 581.25$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 560.29$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.09 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 544.91$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 544.31$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.84 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 491.94$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 481.47$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 463.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 404$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 353.73$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.95 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 345.14$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 344$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 259.11$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 230$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 165.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 151.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 144.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 142.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 137.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 125.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…1b78backed Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 56.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 54.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 47.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 40.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 38.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 36.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73db…1507backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 24.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 23.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.