MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5dc8674e2a3421d2d647516388c27cfe6c2b5cbfe0b0c35d89848d76fe6d2f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 21,470$11,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,354.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 47c | 19,607$9,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,391.71 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 28c | 7,793$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,594.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 71c | 5,189$3,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,684.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 4,048$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 4,002$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.02 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 51c | 3,653$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.19 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.99 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.83 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 1,231$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 52c | 1,176$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.76 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 945.82$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 850.97$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 70c | 843.08$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.94 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 52c | 784.16$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.76 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 754.39$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.14 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 716.07$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 517.97$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.34 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 380.4$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.11 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 52c | 367$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.84 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 52c | 309.79$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.09 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 71c | 308.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.32 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…db45backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Under | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 52c | 221.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 39c | 210.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.26 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 209.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Under | 65c | 179.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 47c | 138$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 114.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 44c | 112.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 59c | 102.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 94.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed Under | 52c | 57.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 52c | 57.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 38c | 49.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 51c | 41.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 52c | 40.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 49c | 36.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 50c | 31.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 52c | 24.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 69c | 19.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.