NFL · resolved market
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the NFC South?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d68f81b2ebfaed1592a864eb7f4739cda28ab0cc211020f2cde9f78e63401aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x521e…5739backed Yes | 26c | 50,015$13,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,003.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe10…2a3fbacked No | 74c | 50,015$37,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,003.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 6c | 15,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed Yes | 31c | 6,180$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 29c | 4,679$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.03 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 29c | 2,576$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.36 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 31c | 1,800$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.96 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…36b3backed Yes | 6c | 1,777$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,754$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 72c | 1,401$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.49 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 1,232$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.83 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…8541backed Yes | 5c | 1,164$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 15c | 883.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 69c | 835.67$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.06 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 750$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 6c | 693.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…b528backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e6…7b09backed No | 79c | 655$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 544.44$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Yes | 32c | 439.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…1364backed Yes | 21c | 370$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 30c | 312$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed Yes | 34c | 297.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…20b4backed Yes | 21c | 285$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 284.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 6c | 263$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Yes | 33c | 261.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…0b44backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 72c | 213.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36df…f93cbacked No | 79c | 167$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…2efcbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…df59backed No | 78c | 139$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1d28backed No | 79c | 131$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…257cbacked No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad21…cefcbacked Yes | 37c | 124.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 66c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…5f72backed Yes | 21c | 117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fa74backed Yes | 21c | 117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895c…4bb9backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…4e70backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1b…5ac9backed Yes | 25c | 88.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…bdf7backed Yes | 22c | 88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648a…4f1dbacked Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 73.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…0c27backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…166cbacked Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 77c | 54.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…56acbacked Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 41.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Atlanta Falcons win the NFC South?this page
- Will the Carolina Panthers win the NFC South?Yes won
- Will the New Orleans Saints win the NFC South?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the NFC South?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.