WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dbab6dc18351193fd6dc964ac7d351e4665e41af436b8e27d56cc90101cda81

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Chicago Skyof Chicago Sky, PortlandFire
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $75,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,563 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in WNBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky	52c	50,689$26,198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,490.88	785	48.8%383 W · 402 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86e…45cebacked PortlandFire	49c	29,422$14,461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,460.9	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked PortlandFire	49c	8,533$4,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,200	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Chicago Sky	52c	5,370$2,799 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,571.5	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked PortlandFire	49c	5,267$2,581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,580.96	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,399.99	274	49.6%136 W · 138 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bcf…c767backed PortlandFire	49c	4,020$1,970 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,969.86	91	40.7%37 W · 54 L	-6.5wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire	43c	3,086$1,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,338.64	837	48.1%403 W · 434 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f07…e8cebacked Chicago Sky	51c	2,961$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,461.25	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed PortlandFire	49c	2,946$1,444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,443.54	115	40%46 W · 69 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky	50c	2,802$1,404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,397.89	1,765	51.7%912 W · 853 L	+53.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed PortlandFire	49c	2,171$1,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,063.83	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-3.4wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire	47c	1,446$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.54	922	48.8%450 W · 472 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Chicago Sky	58c	1,179$688 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.26	150	48%72 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Chicago Sky	52c	1,111$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.28	96	51%49 W · 47 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Chicago Sky	52c	1,084$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.32	361	54%195 W · 166 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed PortlandFire	49c	1,027$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	327	43.7%143 W · 184 L	-23.7wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked PortlandFire	47c	1,005$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.58	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Chicago Sky	52c	954$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.92	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ce…9f80backed Chicago Sky	52c	825.27$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.13	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed PortlandFire	41c	600$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246	112	50%56 W · 56 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+14%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Chicago Sky	53c	468.2$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.2	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Chicago Sky	51c	399.99$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	66	40.9%27 W · 39 L	-6.3wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked PortlandFire	41c	379.66$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.66	411	45.7%188 W · 223 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire	45c	356.11$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.33	1,611	50.2%809 W · 802 L	+37.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed PortlandFire	48c	295.5$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.84	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	-7.5wins	-0.17per pick	49cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2bb4…4551backed PortlandFire	52c	264.1$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.12	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c7…c7a7backed PortlandFire	47c	250$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.5	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed PortlandFire	49c	237.24$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.25	462	47%217 W · 245 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed PortlandFire	52c	218.63$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.69	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e0…708fbacked PortlandFire	47c	208$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Chicago Sky	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	119	41.2%49 W · 70 L	-12.0wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PortlandFire	42c	190.5$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.01	378	50%189 W · 189 L	+9.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Chicago Sky	52c	169.23$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.23	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked PortlandFire	44c	157$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.64	211	50.2%106 W · 105 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51da…a701backed Chicago Sky	65c	154.38$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.38	161	53.4%86 W · 75 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed PortlandFire	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbf9…b521backed PortlandFire	47c	148.94$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked PortlandFire	43c	139.53$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed PortlandFire	41c	129$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	749	42.3%317 W · 432 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked PortlandFire	35c	124.38$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.53	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked PortlandFire	41c	114.46$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.93	50	62%31 W · 19 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc59…35f7backed PortlandFire	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Chicago Sky	52c	99.98$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.99	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2342…12d6backed Chicago Sky	52c	97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.56	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x119d…bec3backed Chicago Sky	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+51.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ad3…1af6backed PortlandFire	47c	83.96$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.46	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed PortlandFire	47c	70.74$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.25	329	48.6%160 W · 169 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a2…b3cdbacked PortlandFire	47c	63.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Chicago Sky	52c	62.5$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa807…cc2ebacked PortlandFire	49c	60.04$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.17	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked PortlandFire	47c	55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.85	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1683…3cc1backed PortlandFire	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x987b…3d00backed Chicago Sky	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	133	48.1%64 W · 69 L	-10.1wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x982c…0d6ebacked PortlandFire	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked PortlandFire	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	284	47.9%136 W · 148 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x381c…c62dbacked PortlandFire	42c	49.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed PortlandFire	41c	48.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed PortlandFire	47c	47$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.09	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…28ffbacked Chicago Sky	54c	44.89$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3c…9f22backed PortlandFire	47c	44.68$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eac…de53backed PortlandFire	47c	42.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62cd…7b19backed PortlandFire	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d4…2613backed PortlandFire	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed PortlandFire	48c	34.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	99	55.6%55 W · 44 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78fb…56bcbacked PortlandFire	47c	32.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca8…c6c0backed Chicago Sky	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…79c3backed PortlandFire	48c	31.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.32per pick	44cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed PortlandFire	42c	29.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1406…99c7backed PortlandFire	47c	25.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5)this page
PortlandFire vs. Chicago SkyChicago Sky won
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 172.5Over won
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 173.5Over won
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 174.5Over won
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)Chicago Sky won
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5)Chicago Sky won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event