Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dc275ff0893fe004ab57d6da5b9f99bf12daff504620982c5aed64cad4fb120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 844.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.12 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 35c | 525.34$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 64c | 442.03$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 35c | 384.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 320.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 38c | 305.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 290.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 268.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 68c | 249.64$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 72c | 166.8$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 152.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 149.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 149.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 130.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 36c | 125.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 121.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 33c | 117.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 111.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 34c | 106.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 36c | 96.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 93.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 55c | 89.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 61c | 83.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6eb…babebacked Yes | 80c | 81.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 37c | 68.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 34c | 64.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 30c | 59.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 42.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 70c | 31.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 70c | 31.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 24.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 66c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 62c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 58c | 17.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 71c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.